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Wahpeton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Wahpeton ND
National Weather Service Forecast for: Wahpeton ND
Issued by: National Weather Service Grand Forks, ND
Updated: 1:45 pm CDT Jul 13, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 85. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Sunny
Tonight

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable  in the evening.
Increasing
Clouds
Monday

Monday: Areas of smoke between 9am and 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Areas Smoke
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Increasing clouds, with a low around 67. South southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Scattered
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Cloudy, with a low around 59. North northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely
Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. North northeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Chance
Showers
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Chance
Showers
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North northeast wind around 8 mph.
Mostly Sunny
Hi 85 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 67 °F Hi 76 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 66 °F Lo 53 °F Hi 71 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

This Afternoon
 
Sunny, with a high near 85. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight
 
Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Monday
 
Areas of smoke between 9am and 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday Night
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds, with a low around 67. South southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 59. North northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. North northeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North northeast wind around 8 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Northeast wind around 7 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.
Friday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. South southeast wind 6 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Wahpeton ND.

Weather Forecast Discussion
814
FXUS63 KFGF 131744
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of wildfire smoke will degrade air quality later
  this afternoon into evening in northeast North Dakota into
  northwest and west-central Minnesota.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms both late
  Monday and Tuesday. The main hazards will be gusty winds,
  hail, and flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Smoke starting to cross into the far northern Red River Valley.
Most sites with vis sensors have around 4-6SM so that and Purple
Air readings show this round a bit better than yesterday.
However, Cavalier has vis down to 2 miles so could be slightly
more dense smoke along the leading edge.

UPDATE Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Pretty quiet this morning with a bit of a break between rounds
of smoke currently. However, next push of smoke is seen on
satellite about to cross the international border, and will
continue to push south and east the rest of the day.

UPDATE
Issued at 731 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Morning sunlight reveals next batch of wildfire smoke is
currently making its way through southern MB. On its current
trajectory, it will start to infiltrate areas north of US
Highway 2 late this morning, with areas south in the afternoon.
There is still a chance that smoke will bypass some locations
near central and southeast ND, with thickest smoke likely to be
more within northwest Minnesota late morning into early
afternoon.

It remains unclear how thick smoke is at the surface due to
sparse observation dataset where smoke currently resides as well
as upstream of its location. Thus will continue to message
potential impacts to all populations as talked about in the
Discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Departing shortwave upper trough/low is exiting the western
Great Lakes region into ON as seen on water vapor imagery early
this morning. In its wake, northwest flow aloft will persist
continuing to advect continental air mass originating from
Canada today, with an additional cold front set to move through
the area today. This will bring another, final round of
wildfire smoke behind the cold front into the region degrading
air quality. More on details on this can be found below.

Flow aloft then turns more zonal over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest as large upper low over the Hudson Bay begins to
develop early next week. This will promote entrance region upper
jet dynamics to overspread the Northern Plains, promoting lee
troughing/frontal development at the surface, increasing overall
forcing for ascent within the region. This also will promote
moisture return from the south into the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest along with increasing instability. With forcing
for ascent increasing over the region, chance for showers and
thunderstorms increases Monday and Tuesday.

Widespread medium to high chance for rainfall increases
beginning late Monday, lingering through Tuesday. Increased
instability and flow aloft will introduce the potential for
strong to severe storms during this timeframe over the Dakotas
into Minnesota. Additionally, above average moisture content
pushing into the region of ascent within the Dakotas and
Minnesota along with potential for training thunderstorms will
introduce potential for excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding. More details on this found below.

As the Hudson Bay low develops further into Thursday and Friday,
there will be a tendency for cooler, continental air mass to
intrude over the region. Ensemble guidance like ENS EFI
continues to note on high probabilities for below average
temperatures between Wednesday and Friday. Overnight/early
morning low temperatures continue to be forecast into the mid
40s and low 50s. Should ideal radiational cooling conditions
occur, there is a low chance for low temperatures into the upper
30s, perhaps more in the typical cooler spots of northeast ND
and northwest MN. Drier conditions will also accompany this set
up, as well as additional chance for more wildfire smoke to
infiltrate the region.

... Wildfire Smoke Today ...

Before sunset Saturday, visible satellite imagery showed an area
of dense smoke emerge from wildfires within SK behind a passing
cold front. This cold front and attendant air mass will move
through the area. Smoke guidance continues to show this smoke
to move through portions of northeast ND into northwest and
west- central MN this afternoon into evening. Observing the
thick smoke lends credence to this scenario unfolding, however,
there is uncertainty how dense smoke will be behind as it
envelopes these areas given the lack of upstream surface
observations. Will continue to message increased risk of adverse
health effects to all populations today from wildfire smoke
today into this evening.

... Severe Potential Late Monday into Tuesday ...

There continues to be increased confidence in potential for at
least isolated severe thunderstorms within portions of eastern
ND into northwest and west-central MN starting late Monday,
lasting through the day Tuesday. This is supported by AI
guidance like NCAR`s Pangu and FengWu Convective Hazard
Forecasts both highlighting increased probabilities above 15% in
these areas Monday and now Tuesday.

There is still however large uncertainty in how storm evolution
will unfold. While confidence is high that window for severe
potential starts late Monday (possibly after sunset), confidence
in locations and timing through Tuesday is low. This is partly
due to the fact that there will be broad scale ascent over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with potentially several mid
level shortwave impulses moving over a frontal boundary that
will gradually push southward late Monday through Tuesday.
Additionally, important mesoscale details continue to remain in
question that would dictate more precise timing and location.

Sufficient instability (potentially moderate instability around
the order of 2000 J/kg) and increasing shear (particularly in
the lower levels) will drive severe hazards. While low level
shear will be high at times, warm low level temperatures and
relatively dry lowest levels will preclude tornado potential.
High low level shear will however drive potential for wind gusts
to 70 mph (with a low chance for potentially up to 80 mph should
conditions align right), even for overnight storms Monday night.
Additionally, elevated instability aloft and sufficient shear
aloft will drive hail potential. Confidence is low on hail size
potential, however, hail up to the size of ping pong balls seems
reasonable given elevated convection pushing cloud bearing layer
closer to freezing temperatures.

Additionally, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is
possible as well. Latest modeled guidance continues to present
large swaths of 1-2 inches of rainfall over the Dakotas into
Minnesota late Monday and Tuesday, with low neighborhood
probabilities of 3-5 inches continuing to show up. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms may be widespread given the generally
large scale nature of forcing for ascent with potential for
several impulses to move through in this type of synoptic
pattern, but will hinge upon other mesoscale factors like
instability, boundary orientation/location, and cloud-bearing
flow. This lowers confidence in coverage, location, and amount
of rainfall.

In coordination with the Weather Prediction Center, there has
been an upgrade to a small area of level 2 out of 4 risk for
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding over our region for
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites, but should see at
least a period of MVFR at most sites due to smoke coming down
later this afternoon. Conditions should improve to VFR for all
but perhaps KFAR and KBJI by the end of the period. Winds that
are northwest to southwest under 10 kts will shift more
northwesterly with a few gusts to 20 kts this afternoon as a
weak cold front comes through. Light and variable winds by this
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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